A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
