Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
